Thursday, November 13, 2008

The Current Real Estate Cycle

So this article is going to be a bit edgy and may provoke mind tingling thoughts of Inquisition. Perhaps you may even get dizzy. I did!


Where is the market going from here? In my opinion...nowhere but down...like a home sick mole!



credit crunch



These days whether I'm talking to a mortgage broker, another agent, investors, etc. I ask "So where do you think the real estate market is heading. Most think the worst is over, but very small few agree with my reasoning. So, I decided to bring it to the Rain and hopefully make it out alive...hit me with your best shot.


With the over-all condition of the financial market, stock market, and real estate market I can't believe they're are so many optimist out there.


Here's my roller coaster of a explanation...


Cause: Lenders tightening their lending standards to only type A borrowors.


Effect: Large pool of buyers are wiped out!


Cause: Less buyers shopping for real estate.


Effect: More inventory on the market.


Cause: The longer it takes to sell the market inventory.


Effect: More seller competition = More buyer incentives = Price decreases


Cause: More Price declines


Effect: More defaults


Cause: People maxed out the Home Equity Line and are now living on credit until the next ball drops.


Effect: More defaults, More credit crunch, More inventory


Cause: Reserves are low for lenders lending money.


Effect: Money costs more to lend...Interest rates go up.


Cause: Interest rates go up


Effect: People can't afford to buy a home


Cause: Inflation


Effect: Homeowners can't pay their bills, ie., mortgage and credit cards


Cause: Homeowners can't pay their bills, ie., mortgage and credit cards


Effect: More Defaults


Cause: 2 More cycles of Adjustable rate mortgages to reset over the next year.


Effect: More Defaults....more inventory, more price declines.


We'll you get the idea...it's a vicious cycle. I could go on and on...I didn't even touch the volatile stock market and it's effects. Please give me your thoughts as I am open to your opinion and I do realize mine is a bit different from the average Joe.


If your a buyer make sure you buy with your market decrease buffer built in. If you're a property seller make sure your property is priced right to sell fast or get creative. Creativity can be a win/win situation in this market. Let me show you how!


Specializing in Bellingham, Wa Bank Owned Properties, Short Sales, and Seller Financed Properties. Please give me a call, I'd love to work with you!

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